The voluntary churn gap

A product case for Stripe Billing. Stripe built the best involuntary-churn machinery in the industry — Smart Retries, dunning, the card account updater — then left three quarters of the subscription-retention problem to a vendor ecosystem running on its own rails. Built entirely from public information; not affiliated with or endorsed by Stripe.

• Stripe owns the smaller quarter
• Five things the current primitive cannot do
• The market has already priced this gap
• So here is what I would build
• Then measure it honestly
• Prediction comes last, and that is the point
• The number, and why it is not the argument
• Stripe is giving away the churn label set
• The honest caveat